"Age-specific Job Flows and Worker Flows Using a National Dataset", Economics Letters, (SSCI), 99, 398-401, 2008. (with Meng-Wen Tsou), (SSCI)

Over the last several decades, a number of studies have found that the rise in unemployment rates observable at the bottom of a business cycle has been caused not by an increase in layoffs, but rather by a decrease in job creation and employer-to-employer transfers. Other studies have shown that younger workers are more likely to be laid off and to transfer from one employer to another. Using a complete national population dataset from Taiwan covering the period 1998-2002, we evaluate these claims and find some surprising results. While job creation and hiring do indeed fall at the bottom of the business cycle, separations, job destruction, and employer-to-employer transfers also increase significantly. Furthermore, our empirical analysis indicates that when compared with prime-age workers, younger workers are less likely to transfer between employers and less likely to experience job destruction. Finally, we find that the business cycle affects workers of different ages in different ways. Prime-age and older-age workers, for instance, are affected most by increased separations during an economic downturn, while the young are influenced more by a decrease in hiring. These results imply that unemployment policies in Taiwan must give adequate attention to previously employed and prime-age individuals.