Shiu-Sheng Chen Department Chair, Professor of Economics, National Taiwan University Department of Economics National Taiwan University Social Science Building No. 1, Sec. 4, Roosevelt Road Taipei, Taiwan C.V.  Google Scholar Web of Science ORCID  Scopus Teaching 漢字首頁 台大經濟系總體與貨幣政策研究室

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Books

Link to Books

Working Papers   

"Inflation Expectations and Inflation Persistence" (2023). SSRN

Published Papers

台灣貨幣與匯率政策研究 

1. "Interest Rate Policy and House Prices: Evidence from Taiwan," (with B.Y. Chen),
   Taiwan Economic Review, 52:4, 377-409 (2024).

2. "新台幣匯率與貿易條件惡化,"《經濟論文叢刊》 "Terms of Trade Deterioration and Exchange Rates: The Case of Taiwan" Taiwan Economic Review], 50:1, 51-85 (2022).

3. "台灣匯率貶值政策之探討," 《經濟論文叢刊》 ["Exchange Rate Undervaluation Policy in Taiwan" Taiwan Economic Review], 47:1, 41-74 (2019).

4. "央行「阻升不阻貶」? -- 再探台灣匯率不對稱干預政策,"《經濟論文叢刊》["Does the Central Bank of Taiwan Intervene the Foreign Exchange Market Asymmetrically?" Taiwan Economic Review], 44:2, 187-213 (2016).

5. "台灣貨幣政策法則之檢視," (與吳聰敏合著), 《經濟論文》 ["Assessing Monetary Policy in Taiwan," Academia Economic Papers], 38:1, 33-59 (2010).

6. "台灣匯率制度初探," (與吳聰敏合著),  《經濟論文叢刊》 ["An Investigation of Exchange Rate Policy in Taiwan," Taiwan Economic Review], 36:2, 147-182 (2008).

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   Other Papers
   　

7. ''Misaligned Currencies and Economic Growth: The Role of Global Value Chains,'' (with Y.T. Huang and T.Y. Lin),
   Journal of International Money and Finance, 151, 103252 (2025).

8. "Monetary Policy and Housing Market Cycles,"  (with T.Y. Lin and J.K. Wang),
   Macroeconomic Dynamics, 28:8, 1682-1714 (2024).

9. "Monetary Policy and Renewable Energy Production," (with T.Y. Lin),
   Energy Economics, 132, 107495 (2024).

10. "A Direct Approach to Kilian--Lewis Style Counterfactual Analysis in VAR Models,"
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 38(7), 1068–1076. (2023). Data Code

11. "Liquidity Yield and Exchange Rate Predictability," (with Y.H. Chou),
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 137, 102903 (2023).

12. "Presidents, Fed Chairs, and the Deviations from the Taylor Rule," (with F.S. Chang, T.Y. Lin and P.Y. Wang),
    Macroeconomic Dynamics, 27(6), 1687-1705 (2023). Appendix

13. "How Do Oil Prices Affect Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads?" (with S. Huang and T.Y. Lin),
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 128, 102700 (2022).

14. "Detecting Persistent One-sided Intervention in Foreign Exchange Markets: A Simple Test," (with J.K. Wang),
    International Finance, 25:1, 23-45 (2022).

15. "Revisiting the Link between House Prices and Monetary Policy," (with T.Y. Lin),
    The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 22:2, 481-515 (2022). Appendix

16. "Politics and the UK's Monetary Policy," (with F.S. Chang and P.Y. Wang),
    Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 67:5, 486-522 (2020).

17. "Do Stock Markets Have Predictive Content for Exchange Rate Movements?" (with C.C. Hsu),
    Journal of Forecasting, 38:7, 699-713 (2019).

18. "Do Exchange Rate Shocks have Asymmetric Effects on Reserve Accumulation? Evidence from Emerging Markets," (with T.Y. Lin),
    The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 121:4, 1561-1586 (2019).

19. "Further Evidence on Bear Market Predictability: The Role of the External Finance Premium," (with N.K. Chen and Y.H. Chou),
    International Review of Economics and Finance, 50, 106-121 (2017).

20. "Exchange Rate Undervaluation and R&D Activity,"
    Journal of International Money and Finance, 72, 148-160 (2017).

21. "Commodity Prices and Related Equity Prices,"
    Canadian Journal of Economics, 49:3, 949-967 (2016).

22. "Predicting US Recessions with Stock Market Illiquidity," (with Y.H. Chou and C.Y. Yen),
    The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 16:1, 93-123 (2016).

23. "Does Fear Lead to Recessions?," (with Y.H. Chou),
    Macroeconomic Dynamics, 20:5, 1247-1263 (2016).

24. "Revisiting the Relationship between Exchange Rates and Fundamentals," (with Y.H. Chou),
    Journal of Macroeconomics, 46, 1-22 (2015).

25. "Forecasting Crude Oil Price Movements with Oil-Sensitive Stocks,"
    Economic Inquiry, 52:2, 830-844 (2014).

26. "Do Politics Cause Regime Shifts in Monetary Policy?" (with C.C. Wang),
    Contemporary Economic Policy, 32:2, 492-502 (2014).

27. "Using Demographic Changes to Revisit the Consumption–Real Exchange Rate Anomaly,"
    The Manchester School, 81:2, 163-175 (2013).

28. "Oil Price Volatility and Bilateral Trade," (with K.W. Hsu),
    Energy Journal, 34:1, 207-229 (2013).

29. "Rational Expectations, Changing Monetary Policy Rules, and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics," (with Y.H. Chou),
    Journal of Banking and Finance, 36:10, 2824-2836 (2012).

30. "Reverse Globalization: Does High Oil Price Volatility Discourage International Trade?" (with K.W. Hsu),
    Energy Economics, 34:5, 1634-1643 (2012).

31. "Consumer Confidence and Stock Returns over Market Fluctuations,"
    Quantitative Finance, 12:10, 1585-1597 (2012).

32. "Does Extracting Inflation from Stock Returns Solve the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle?"
    Empirical Economics, 42:3, 1097-1105 (2012).

33. "Revisiting the Empirical Linkages between Stock Returns and Trading Volume,"
    Journal of Banking and Finance, 36:6, 1781-1788 (2012).

34. "動態隨機一般均衡 (DSGE)模型在貨幣政策制定上的應用: 一個帶有批判性的回顧與展望," (與湯茹茵合著),《經濟論文叢刊》["DSGE Models and Policy Making: A Critical Review," Taiwan Economic Review], 40:3, 289–323 (2012).

35. "Lack of Consumer Confidence and Stock Returns,"
    Journal of Empirical Finance, 18:2, 225-236 (2011).

36. "Taiwan’s Exchange Rate and Macroeconomic Policies over the Business Cycle," (with T.M. Wu),
    Singapore Economic Review, 55:3, 435-457 (2010).

37. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence from Long-Horizon Regression Tests," (with Y.H. Chou),
    Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 72:1, 63-88 (2010).

38. "Do Higher Oil Prices Push the Stock Market into Bear Territory?"
    Energy Economics, 32:2, 490-495 (2010).

39. "Are Mathematics and Science Test Scores Good Indicators of Labor-force Quality?" (with M.C. Luoh),
    Social Indicators Research, 96:1, 133-143 (2010).

40. "House Prices, Collateral Constraint, and the Asymmetric Effect on Consumption," (with N.K. Chen and Y.H. Chou),
    Journal of Housing Economics, 19:1, 26-37 (2010).

41. "Revisiting the Inflationary Effects of Oil Prices,"
    Energy Journal, 30:4, 161-174 (2009).

42. "Oil Price Pass-Through into Inflation,"
    Energy Economics, 31:1, 126-133 (2009).

43. "Predicting the Bear Stock Market: Macroeconomic Variables as Leading Indicators,"
    Journal of Banking and Finance, 33:2, 211-223 (2009).

44. "The Liquidity Effect in a Flexible-Price Monetary Model,"
    Oxford Economic Papers, 60:1, 122-142 (2008).

45. "Assessment of Weymark’s Measures of Exchange Market Intervention: The Case of Japan," (with K. Taketa),
    Pacific Economic Review, 12:5, 545-558 (2007).

46. "A Note on Interest Rate Defense Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility,"
    Economic Modelling, 24:5, 768-777 (2007).

47. "Oil Prices and Real Exchange Rates," (with H.C. Chen)
    Energy Economics, (2007), 29:3, 390-404 (2007).

48. "Does Monetary Policy Have Asymmetric Effects on Stock Returns?"
    Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 39:2-3, 667-688 (2007).

49. "Perspectives on Teaching International Macroeconomics and Finance: Is There More Consensus in the 2000s?"
    Economics Bulletin, Vol.1 no.3, 1-20 (2006).

50. "Revisiting the Interest Rate-Exchange Rate Nexus: A Markov Switching Approach,"
    Journal of Development Economics, 79:1, 208-224 (2006).

51. "A Note on In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Tests for Granger Causality,"
    Journal of Forecasting, 24:6, 453-464 (2005).

52. "Does ‘Aggregation Bias’ Explain the PPP Puzzle?" (with C.M. Engel),
     Pacific Economic Review, 10:1, 49-72 (2005).

53. "Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Monetary Shocks: A Revisit,"
    International Journal of Finance and Economics, 9:1, 25-32 (2004).

54. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Welfare Cost of Stabilization Policy,"
    Journal of Policy Modeling, 25:2, 123-135 (2003).

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