研討日期	2023年3月20日12:40~ 13:50
研討地點	國立臺灣大學社會科學院710會議室
主講題目 Title of the paper	Ties
作者 Authors of the paper	Federico Revelli, Tsung-Sheng Tsai, Cheng-Tai Wu
文獻出處 Journal, vol.(issue), pp	Working paper
主講人	蔡崇聖教授
參加人員	黃鴻、林燕淑、彭正浩、張瑞雲、高國峯、許至乙、蘇家叡、Suttiwan Suwannajoi、Bui Dang Long、楊雅棠、朱宣宥
摘要 Abstract of the paper	We tackle the question of the role of pivotality in voter turnout decisions by testing for the first time whether the occurrence of a tied election generates information spillovers onto nearby localities’ subsequent elections. First, we develop a model where voters update their beliefs regarding the probability of their vote being decisive upon observing earlier elections’ outcomes. Next, by exploiting Italian mayoral elections ending in close outcomes during the past two decades and the quasi-experimental conditions created by the staggered electoral calendar, we find a substantial impact on voter turnout rates of exposure to spillovers from rare electoral results.