研討日期	2025年04月14日12:10-13:50
研討地點	國立臺灣大學社會科學院710會議室
主講題目 Title of the paper	Target Pressure and GDP Overreporting: Evidence from China’s Poverty Alleviation Program
作者 Authors of the paper	Wei-Min Hu, Tzu-Ting Yang
文獻出處 Journal, vol.(issue), pp	Working Paper
主講人	胡偉民
參加人員	黃鴻、胡偉民、林燕淑、許至乙、彭正浩、林晏如、Bui Dang-Long、Ayu Sasni Munte、Micah Mainala、Anggoro Prihandoko、楊雅棠、洪睿翔
摘要 Abstract of the Paper	This paper investigates the effect of China’s 2020 poverty alleviation goal on GDP reporting in poverty-stricken counties. We adapt Martínez’s (2022) model to estimate differences in GDP-nighttime light elasticity between poverty and non-poverty counties, assuming this elasticity should be consistent across all counties without manipulation. Our findings reveal significant GDP overreporting in poverty-stricken counties following the announcement of the 2020 goal. We estimate these counties inflated their GDP figures by approximately 23%, meaning that for every 1% of actual economic growth, the officially reported GDP growth was about 1.23%. Event study analysis shows that overreporting increases as the target deadline approaches, suggesting escalating pressure on local officials to demonstrate performance. These results highlight the unintended consequences of top-down poverty alleviation targets and the potential for data manipulation in high-stakes policy environments.