研討日期

2025年04月07日12:10-13:50

研討地點

國立臺灣大學社會科學院710會議室

主講題目

Title of the paper

Can cross‐holdings benefit consumers?

作者

Authors of the paper

Hao Cheng, Xiaoting Wu, Chenhang Zeng

文獻出處

Journal, vol.(issue), pp

Journal of Economics

Volume 141, pages 245–273, (2024)

DOI: 10.1007/s00712-023-00850-x

主講人

施姵全

參加人員

黃鴻、林燕淑、施姵全、許至乙、王光正、王羿傑、林晏如、Ayu Sasni Munte、Micah Mainala、Anggoro Prihandoko、楊雅棠、洪睿翔

摘要

Abstract of the Paper

This paper investigates the effect of China’s 2020 poverty alleviation goal on GDP reporting in poverty-stricken counties. We adapt Martínez’s (2022) model to estimate differences in GDP-nighttime light elasticity between poverty and non-poverty counties, assuming this elasticity should be consistent across all counties without manipulation. Our findings reveal significant GDP overreporting in poverty-stricken counties following the announcement of the 2020 goal. We estimate these counties inflated their GDP figures by approximately 23%, meaning that for every 1% of actual economic growth, the officially reported GDP growth was about 1.23%. Event study analysis shows that overreporting increases as the target deadline approaches, suggesting escalating pressure on local officials to demonstrate performance. These results highlight the unintended consequences of top-down poverty alleviation targets and the potential for data manipulation in high-stakes policy environments.