研討日期

201272810:30 ~ 12:00

研討地點

台大社會科學院26教室

討論題目

題目

作者

文獻出處

Profits and Losses from Currency Intervention

Hailong Jin and E. Kwan Choi

Working paper

報告人

Kwan Choi

參加人員

Kwan Choi、黃鴻、林燕淑、王光正、彭正浩、高國峯、陳金盛、鍾暳陵、林季萱、王佳琪、林晏如、王羿傑、丁虹仁、張志瑋、黃品錚、許至乙、施姵全

摘要

This paper investigates the possible gains from currency intervention by central banks using a two-period framework in which a trade surplus in one period must be offset by a trade deficit in the next period. It is shown that when the interest rate is zero, the optimal policy is nonintervention. If the interest rate is positive, a country may earn positive profits by incurring a trade surplus in the first period. However, there is an upper bound for optimal trade surplus. A country actually may lose money if the rate of devaluation below the equilibrium is greater than the interest rate. A linear model suggests that China may have been losing money from excessive devaluation of renminbi since 2002.