研討日期

2009年12月05日10:20 ~ 12:00

研討地點

台大社會科學院電化教室

題目

The WTO Trade Effect

作者

Pao-Li Chang

文獻出處

Working Paper

報告人

Pao-Li Chang

參加人員

Pao-Li Chang、黃鴻、梁文榮、彭正浩、蔡明芳、張民忠、曾靜枝、高國峯、李朝功、周冰瑤、陳金盛、王光正、施姵全、丁虹仁

摘要

This paper proposes to reexamine the GATT/WTO membership effect on bilateral trade flows, using nonparametric methods including pair-matching, permutation tests, and a Rosen-baum (2002) sensitivity analysis. Taken together in a coherent manner, these methods provide an estimation framework that is robust to misspecification biases, allows general forms of heterogeneous treatment effects, and addresses potential hidden selection biases. This is in contrast to most conventional parametric studies of this issue based on gravity models. The results here suggest large GATT/WTO trade-promoting effects, robust to various restricted matching criteria, alternative indicators for GATT/WTO involvement, and different matching methodologies.

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